The Mandera Triangle faces another climate test as communities struggle to recover from drought, floods and repeated shocks.
By Ahmed Shakur – RACIDA Communications Officer
September 11, 2026
The Mandera Triangle, the Kenya–Ethiopia–Somalia borderlands, is once again on high alert as forecasts point to an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall during the October–December 2026 season associated with El Niño conditions.
For communities still recovering from years of drought, conflict, economic shocks and fragile infrastructure, another major climate shock could reverse hard-won gains and deepen vulnerability.
The question is no longer simply whether the rains will come. It is whether communities, governments and humanitarian actors will act before they arrive.
A cycle of extremes
Across the Mandera Triangle, climate extremes are no longer isolated emergencies. They are becoming part of a cycle.
Drought reduces household assets. Livestock weaken or die. Water sources dry up. Food prices rise. Families sell productive assets and begin rebuilding.
Then the rains arrive, sometimes too heavily and too quickly.
Rivers rise. Roads disappear beneath floodwater. Farms are submerged. Water sources become contaminated. Homes are damaged. Markets are disrupted. Families that have only just begun to recover are displaced again.
This cycle is quietly eroding the ability of households and institutions to recover.
The wider Kenya–Ethiopia–Somalia borderlands are particularly exposed because they form one interconnected ecological and livelihood system. Families, pastoralists, livestock, traders and markets move across borders, while rivers, grazing areas, transport routes and water systems cross administrative boundaries.
The Dawa River: a shared lifeline and shared risk
The Dawa River is not simply a line on a map. It is part of a shared ecological and livelihood system connecting communities across Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.
The river supports water access, agriculture, livestock and economic activity along its banks and wider catchment. But when rainfall upstream becomes intense, the same river can become a source of sudden and destructive flooding.
Rain may fall in one country and create flood risk in another. Information may be generated upstream while consequences are felt downstream.
A community along the river therefore needs more than a local warning. It needs timely information about what is happening across the wider basin.
According to Kenya National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and Mandera County Reports, previous flooding in the wider Mandera area demonstrates the scale of this vulnerability. In 2020, more than 7,500 households were affected, approximately 5,146 acres of cultivated land were destroyed and more than 4,600 farms were flooded. Nineteen water intake points were also affected, disrupting water access for an estimated 72,200 households.
Behind these figures are families losing food, income, livestock, shelter and productive assets—and communities facing disrupted services, longer journeys for safe water and greater dependence on emergency assistance.
When floods destroy what drought left behind
The 2023 floods in Somalia offer another stark reminder of what happens when extreme weather collides with accumulated vulnerability.
By December 2023, approximately 2.48 million people had been affected by flooding, around 1.2 million had been displaced and at least 118 people had died. Homes were destroyed, roads and bridges damaged, farmland inundated, water systems contaminated and markets disrupted. – Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA)
The floods were not simply a water emergency.
They became a food-security, health, WASH, protection, education and livelihoods crisis.
This is why the next climate shock cannot be treated as a standalone emergency. It must be understood within the context of what communities have already endured.
El Niño is a risk multiplier
El Niño is not simply about whether there will be more rain.
In the Mandera Triangle, intense rainfall can bring riverine and flash floods, landslides, waterborne diseases, disruption to health and education services and further displacement.
For pastoral and agro-pastoral communities, the consequences can include livestock losses, damaged grazing areas, restricted market access and renewed food insecurity.
The greatest danger comes when these shocks arrive while households, local systems and governments are still recovering from previous crises.
The difference between heavy rainfall becoming a blessing or a disaster often comes down to preparedness.
Early warning must become early action
Forecasts, climate outlooks, satellite monitoring and river gauges are essential.
But a forecast does not save a life unless it triggers a decision.
For flood-prone communities along the Dawa River, an effective early-warning system should monitor upstream rainfall and river levels, interpret the information, activate agreed risk thresholds and deliver clear messages to county authorities, local leaders, community volunteers, health facilities and humanitarian partners.
Communities should already know what each warning means.
When should livestock be moved?
When should vulnerable households evacuate?
When should water-treatment supplies be activated?
When should health facilities prepare?
When should evacuation routes and safe areas be opened?
The answers cannot be developed after the flood begins.
The resources must arrive before the crisis
Preparedness requires more than information.
Financing, transport, safe areas, water-treatment supplies, health preparations and logistics must be identified and positioned before the emergency.
This is particularly important in a cross-border landscape.
A river does not wait for a government meeting. A flood does not respect a county boundary. Disease risks do not stop at national borders.
Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia therefore need stronger mechanisms for sharing information, coordinating preparedness and activating early action across the Mandera Triangle.
Protecting water, livelihoods and infrastructure
The same principle applies to infrastructure and livelihoods.
Roads, bridges, water points, health facilities, schools, farms and settlements should be designed around future climate risks—not repeatedly rebuilt to the same vulnerable standard.
Water illustrates the challenge particularly well.
In dryland areas, flooding can create too much water and too little safe water at the same time.
Floodwater can contaminate wells and water systems, increase disease risks and disrupt access to safe drinking water.
WASH preparedness must therefore include pre-positioned water-treatment supplies, mapped water sources, water-quality monitoring, emergency sanitation, outbreak readiness and practical household guidance.
For pastoral communities, livestock are more than an economic asset. They represent food, income, social capital and insurance against future shocks.
Early livestock movement, fodder, veterinary services, safe grazing areas and functioning markets can help protect household wealth before floodwaters arrive.
For farmers, preparedness must protect crops, irrigation systems, seeds, tools and food stores so productive capacity is not lost.
Preparedness must centre people
Climate preparedness must also centre people.
Women, children, older people, persons with disabilities and displaced households may face additional barriers when evacuating, receiving warnings or accessing safe shelter.
Community knowledge is equally important.
Local residents often know where floodwater reaches first, which roads become impassable and which households need assistance.
Scientific forecasting and community knowledge should therefore reinforce each other.
An early warning system is only effective when people trust it, understand it and can act on it.
From humanitarian response to resilience
This is where humanitarian action, development and climate adaptation must meet.
Communities need emergency assistance when disaster strikes.
But they also need resilient infrastructure between disasters and the capacity to anticipate the next shock before it arrives.
Short-term emergency grants save lives. Yet early-warning networks, community disaster committees, flood-resilient infrastructure, livelihood diversification and climate adaptation require continuity and multi-year financing.
The 2026 El Niño outlook provides an opportunity to invest before the emergency.
Authorities can test contingency plans.
Humanitarian organisations can pre-position supplies.
Health systems can prepare for potential outbreaks.
Communities can strengthen preparedness.
Governments can address known infrastructure weaknesses.
And neighbouring countries can improve systems for managing transboundary risks.
The forecast gives the region something emergency responders rarely have once disaster begins:
Closing the implementation gap
Across the Horn of Africa, we often know a crisis is coming but wait for visible suffering before releasing the resources needed to act.
By then, prevention has become recovery.
Anticipatory action is designed to change this pattern by ensuring that credible forecasts trigger proportionate, evidence-based responses before losses occur.
In the Kenya–Ethiopia–Somalia borderlands, this requires stronger coordination among meteorological institutions, disaster-management authorities, county governments, humanitarian and development partners, local organisations and communities.
But a critical gap remains between preparedness plans and the financing required to activate early action at scale.
A community may have a warning, an agreed trigger and a planned response—but still lack the financing, logistics or institutional arrangements required to act when that trigger is reached.
Closing this gap should be an immediate priority before the peak rainfall period.
The Dawa basin can show what preparedness looks like
The Dawa basin offers a practical opportunity.
Upstream rainfall can be monitored. River levels can be tracked. Flood-risk information can be shared across borders. Communities can be warned through trusted channels.
Clear thresholds can activate preparedness plans.
Support can reach households before they sell productive assets. Livestock can be moved before floodwaters arrive. Water-treatment supplies can be positioned. Health facilities can prepare. Evacuation routes can be identified.
Success should not be measured by dramatic response images.
It should be measured by what does not happen:
Fewer displaced families.
Fewer destroyed farms.
Fewer disease outbreaks.
Fewer blocked roads.
Fewer livestock losses.
Fewer children missing school.
The forecast is a planning signal
The 2026 El Niño outlook should therefore be treated as more than a climate forecast.
It is a planning signal.
Across the Mandera–Dawa landscape and the wider Kenya–Ethiopia–Somalia borderlands, there is still time to map flood risks, reinforce vulnerable infrastructure, pre-position WASH and health supplies, strengthen community warning systems, establish evacuation arrangements, protect livestock and agricultural assets, agree anticipatory financing, improve cross-border information-sharing and ensure warnings reach the last household.
But that window will not remain open indefinitely.
The Mandera Triangle does not need to choose between humanitarian response and long-term development.
It needs to connect them.
The rains will come.
The river will rise again.
The question is not whether we can stop nature, but whether we can reduce the suffering that follows.
The true measure of an early-warning system is not only how accurately it predicts the flood, but how much suffering it prevents.
And the true measure of resilience is not simply how quickly a community recovers, but whether it is stronger, safer and better prepared when the next shock arrives.
The warning has been issued.
Now comes the harder part: acting on it.
This Article’s evidence base includes Mandera County/NDMA reporting, ICPAC/WMO climate outlook information, Somalia flood reporting and RACIDA’s operational perspective from the Mandera–Dawa landscape.
